Episode Summary
U.K. inflation edged up to 3.4% in December, slightly above forecasts, complicating expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in February. The Office for National Statistics says the uptick is driven in part by higher tobacco prices after excise duty increases, with airfares and some food items, including bread and cereals, also pushing prices higher.
Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, holds steady at 3.2%, suggesting underlying pressure is not accelerating even as the headline number rises. Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the central expectation is still for inflation to cool through spring and summer toward the BoE’s 2% target, pointing to measures in last year’s budget. Investors are now watching whether cooling employment and moderating wage growth outweigh this month’s inflation bump. Markets are pricing one to two rate cuts in 2026, but the timing remains sensitive to early-year data.
Show Notes
U.K. inflation ticks up to 3.4% in December, coming in slightly above forecasts and adding uncertainty to whether the Bank of England moves ahead with a February interest-rate cut. The Office for National Statistics says the increase is partly driven by higher tobacco prices after excise duty changes, with airfares and some food items also lifting the headline number. At the same time, core inflation holds at 3.2%, a sign that underlying price pressure is not rising sharply. Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the expectation remains for inflation to cool into spring and summer toward the BoE’s 2% target, as investors weigh inflation data against a cooling labor market and moderating wage growth.
Topics Covered
- 📊 What the 3.4% inflation print says about price pressures
- 🏦 How the Bank of England may approach a February rate decision
- 💷 Market reaction and what it signals for sterling and cuts in 2026
- 🛒 The drivers: tobacco taxes, airfares, and bread-and-cereal costs
- 💼 Jobs and wages as the key swing factor for the next move
Neural Newscast is AI-assisted, human reviewed. View our AI Transparency Policy at NeuralNewscast.com.
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (00:09) - UK inflation rises to 3.4% and the February BoE decision
- (01:52) - What prices are rising most and what comes next for households
- (03:09) - Conclusion
Transcript
Full Transcript Available
[00:00] Hannah Whitmore: From Neural Newscast, I'm Hannah Whitmore.
[00:03] Jonah Klein: And I'm Jonah Klein.
[00:04] Hannah Whitmore: Today is January 31st, 2026.
[00:09] Hannah Whitmore: Coming up, UK inflation ticks higher and the Bank of England faces a tighter decision window.
[00:17] Jonah Klein: Social media analysis.
[00:19] Jonah Klein: We will also break down what is actually getting more expensive.
[00:24] Jonah Klein: and what that signals for rate cuts and household budgets in 2026.
[00:29] Hannah Whitmore: The latest numbers show UK inflation rose to 3.4% in December.
[00:36] Hannah Whitmore: That is a bit above forecasts, and it complicates a February rate cut.
[00:42] Hannah Whitmore: The Office for National Statistics says the increase is partly driven by tobacco prices
[00:49] Hannah Whitmore: after new excise duty increases.
[00:53] Hannah Whitmore: Airfares also climbed from a year ago, tied to the timing of holiday travel.
[00:59] Jonah Klein: Social media analysis?
[01:01] Jonah Klein: All right.
[01:02] Jonah Klein: The detail that jumps out is core inflation.
[01:06] Jonah Klein: Strip out energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco.
[01:10] Jonah Klein: And core holds at 3.2%, unchanged from November.
[01:16] Jonah Klein: Social media analysis?
[01:18] Jonah Klein: I hope my myths.
[01:20] Jonah Klein: That steadiness matters for the Bank of England because it suggests the underlying trend is not re-accelerating, even with a higher headline number.
[01:30] Hannah Whitmore: Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the central expectation is still for inflation to cool into spring and summer toward the Bank of England target of 2%.
[01:42] Hannah Whitmore: She links that outlook to measures in last year's budget.
[01:46] Hannah Whitmore: Still, this uptick comes after signs of cooling in the labor market.
[01:52] Hannah Whitmore: That mix can leave policymakers debating whether to cut in February, or wait for more 2026
[02:01] Jonah Klein: data.
[02:01] Jonah Klein: Turning now to what it means day to day, some of the biggest pushes are in specific categories,
[02:07] Jonah Klein: not everything all at once.
[02:09] Jonah Klein: Tobacco taxes are a direct policy-driven hit, and airfare prices can swing with calendar
[02:15] Jonah Klein: Social media analysis.
[02:18] Jonah Klein: Oh, food costs also show up, especially bread and cereals.
[02:23] Jonah Klein: For listeners, that is the kind of change that feels immediate because it hits the weekly
[02:29] Jonah Klein: shop.
[02:29] Hannah Whitmore: Their offsets, too.
[02:32] Hannah Whitmore: The ONS points to slower rent inflation and lower prices for some recreational and cultural
[02:40] Hannah Whitmore: purchases.
[02:41] Hannah Whitmore: Thank you.
[02:41] Hannah Whitmore: That helps keep the overall picture from running away.
[02:45] Jonah Klein: Social media analysis? Awesome!
[02:48] Jonah Klein: Markets are also watching wage growth.
[02:51] Jonah Klein: If pay growth keeps easing and the jobs data stays soft,
[02:55] Jonah Klein: it strengthens the case for cuts later this year,
[02:58] Jonah Klein: even if February remains uncertain.
[03:01] Hannah Whitmore: Agriculture reporting with a steady, grounded tone.
[03:05] Hannah Whitmore: Keep the framing practical and community focused.
[03:09] Hannah Whitmore: Warm closing identification, I'm Hannah Whitmore.
[03:14] Jonah Klein: Social media analysis with an upbeat, conversational tone and smart cultural fluency.
[03:21] Jonah Klein: Keep reactions playful and clear.
[03:24] Jonah Klein: And I'm Jonah Klein.
[03:25] Jonah Klein: Social media analysis.
[03:28] Jonah Klein: Such a good time.
[03:29] Jonah Klein: Oh yeah, lots of people are talking about that.
[03:32] Jonah Klein: Neural Newscast is AI-assisted, human-reviewed.
[03:37] Jonah Klein: View our AI Transparency Policy at neuralnewscast.com.
✓ Full transcript loaded from separate file: transcript.txt
Loading featured stories...